This year, strong convictions are starting to mount about who is a logical pick and who might be considered a “Budweiser Longshot.” A few horses to keep an eye onfrom this fan’s point of view are Brother Derek, Lawyer Ron, Barbaro and Sweetnorthersaint.
Let’s start with the probable favorite, but first, let me remind you that the post-time favorite has only cantered into the winner’s circle twice since 1979. Fusaichi Pegasus did it in 2000, and Smarty Jones did it in 2004. So, as probable as some of these horses may sound, it’s a statistic that does merit serious consideration. It makes it even more intriguing with the 20-horse field likely for this year’s running of the roses.
Brother Derek, the Cecil Peacock-owned and Dan Hendricks-trained horse, is a monster. His last outing, a 3 and Ѕ rout in the Santa Anita Derby (G-I), drew rave reviews from sportswriters all over the country. He also leads all of the derby horses in graded stakes earnings at $1,114,980. The real question for him is where is he going to go? He enjoys the front-running style, like in the Santa Anita Derby, but also has sat back in some races, like in the Santa Catalina Stakes (G-II). If he does go for the lead, he’ll be joined by Sinister Minister. As you remember, Sinister Minister put on quite a show as he went gate to wire in the Toyota Blue Grass(G-I). Bob Baffert has said countless times that “he can’t rate.” All he can do is run, and run fast. In the Blue Grass, he set fractions of 45.88 for the half and 1:09.94 for three quarters. If he does that at Churchill Downs as expected, he’ll be all out of gas, because the track at Churchill is far different from the speed-favoring Keeneland track where Sinister Minister put on his show.
We know Brother Derek likes to run, and we know Sinister Minister is going to go to the lead.
Brother Derek isn’t the only horse that loves to be on the front. Barbaro, who was game in his wins in the Florida Derby (G-I) and the Holy Bull Stakes (G-3), also loves to be near the front. In those two contests, he was first or second at every call of the race just like in his three previous lifetime starts. The only question surrounding Barbaro is trainer Michael Matz’s decision to give him a five-week rest between the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Matz, who you’ll hear much about this next week and a half, survived a plane crash in the ‘80s and has only been training horses for seven years.
Lawyer Ron and Sweetnorthersaint are two prospects who have earned serious consideration for the first Saturday in May. Lawyer Ron, undefeated on dirt, won the Southwest Stakes, the Rebel (G-III) and the Arkansas Derby (G-II). He has tons of tactical speed, but has had a tendency to not like the dirt that is being kicked up in his face, and he loves to be on the front end. A half mile into the Arkansas Derby, he went to the lead in the blink of an eye from his fourth position on the rail, and fought off rivals Private Vow and Steppenwolfer late. Sweetnorthersaint is a horse many people are starting to love after his romp in the Illinois Derby (G-II). His tactical speed, Illinois Derby win and smooth, steady stride remind many fans of War Emblem, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2002.
Those four horses should take a lot of action from the bettors, but who is the horse you need to watch out for as a longshot?
A. P. Warrior is that horse. He failed to menace the proper bid in the Santa Anita Derby, but he’s beaten some good horses while running at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California, including beating Bob and John, winner of the Wood Memorial(G-1), twice, and he also has knocked off Point Determined, a son of Point Given, who was a great horse a few years back. A. P. Warrior loves to sit off the pace. For his win in the San Felipe (G-II) he sat off the pace, then had a strong rally at the top of the stretch to win with a half a length to spare. Look for him to be running late.
There’s no question that everyone has a favorite “Derby analysis,” but keep in mind that the post-time favorite has won only once since ’79. If Brother Derek can sit off the lead, he’ll be in good shape. Be looking for A. P. Warrior and Brother Derek, two West Coast horses, to be near the front as the wire nears in the 132nd Kentucky Derby.
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